This is the future that we saw coming but chose not to stop.
This is the future that we saw coming but chose not to stop.
Headlines from a Warming World no.12. This week: Stronger Hurricanes, Chile is burning, Parking costs for SUVs in Paris, and Traffic in Athens
Stronger Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones
A new study proposes to extend the hurricane classification scale to include a category 6 for storms with winds of 192mph or more. This addition is motivated by the increasing likelihood of such powerful storms, a consequence of the warming oceans and atmosphere. This warming not only supplies more energy but also more moisture, both of which are critical ingredients for the development and intensification of storm
The authors argue that the current Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale doesn't capture the full risk associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) in our changing climate. As global warming intensifies, it leads to stronger and more frequent TCs, many surpassing the existing Category 5 threshold.
The scientists present three lines of evidence to support their proposal: observations, calculations of storms' potential intensity, and high-resolution climate model simulations.
Integrating a Category 6 into the hurricane scale isn't just about classification—it's about communication. By doing so, the researchers aim to heighten public awareness about the escalating risks posed by major TCs in an era of global warming. This change seeks to not only improve the accuracy of storm risk assessments but also to stir a broader understanding of how climate change is amplifying the dangers associated with the most severe tropical cyclones.
Source: The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world, Michael F. Wehner and James P. Kossin, PNAS, ttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2308901121
Chile is Burning
In 2017, Chile experienced severe wildfires that destroyed vast areas of forest and resulted in the loss of 10 lives, primarily firefighters and police officers. These fires were intensified by a prolonged drought and high temperatures, causing extensive damage to homes and necessitating widespread evacuations.
More recently, in 2024, central Chile faced another devastating wildfire event, claiming at least 131 lives and leaving hundreds missing. President Gabriel Boric described the fires as the worst disaster in the country since a previous event. The fires destroyed thousands of homes, leading to the declaration of a regional state of emergency and a nighttime curfew. The scale of the tragedy led the president to announce two days of mourning and prioritize the recovery of the victims' bodies.
The ecological impact of forest fires in Chile has been significant, with the fires leading to the destruction of vegetation and posing challenges for subsequent ecological restoration. The occurrence of megafires, exacerbated by widespread drought and other atmospheric phenomena, raises concerns about future socio-economic and environmental consequences.
It’s not only Chile. Preliminary analysis which investigated the role of climate change in the exceptional drought that affected the Amazon region in 2023, concluded that human-caused global warming played a much larger role in intensifying these conditions. This marks a pivotal shift in our understanding of climate change's impact, underscoring that it has the power to catalyse major environmental catastrophes, not merely worsen them.
Climate change is making wildfires bigger and more dangerous, regardless of their cause. The escalation of these extreme events calls for urgent action, highlighting the necessity for preventive measures, strategic landscape management, and robust planning policies aimed at curbing the devastating effects of such disasters.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/americas/chile-forest-fires.html
https://www.cr2.cl/eng/forest-fires-in-chile-causes-impacts-and-resilience/
Parisians vote in favour of tripling parking costs for SUVs
I'd like this to happen in every city around the world.
In a referendum held in Paris, 54.6% of Parisians voted to triple parking costs for SUVs, as the city aims to tackle air pollution and climate breakdown by targeting rich drivers in heavy, large, and polluting cars.
Anne Hidalgo, Paris's forward-thinking socialist mayor, champions this initiative as not only an environmental necessity but also a stride towards "social justice." She believes this decision will set a precedent, encouraging other cities worldwide to adopt similar measures. This policy, expected to kick in by September, is designed to nudge the wealthiest, who have been slow to alter their driving habits, towards action against the climate crisis. Unfortunately, this change will not affect parking rates for Paris residents.
This story resonates deeply with my recent experiences in Athens, Greece, where traffic chaos reigns supreme. Economic challenges have led to reduced investment in public transport and environmental projects, while a cultural love affair with personal vehicles only adds fuel to the fire, worsening traffic and pollution. Cars, especially older models with less efficient engines, emit significant amounts of pollutants, including nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. Athens' geography, surrounded by mountains, can trap air pollutants over the city, worsening air quality.
Nevertheless, the fight against urban congestion and pollution is gaining momentum globally. It’s difficult to predict the exact future of private cars in cities, but it’s clear that there is a growing trend towards reducing car usage and promoting sustainable mobility.
A McKinsey report highlights that over 150 cities have already taken steps to reduce private vehicle use, either by restricting car numbers, encouraging eco-friendly transport options, or offering incentives for greener mobility.
I'm optimistic.
Words vs. Action: UK Energy Debate Highlights Gap in Climate Crisis Response
Politicians often say a lot without actually meaning anything. Their words sound good, but they don't lead to substantive action.
This dance of rhetoric versus reality finds a striking example in a recent dialogue between Graham Stuart, the UK Minister for Energy, Security, and Net-Zero, and Louise Kingham, the head of BP in the UK. Stuart's query on how to ramp up oil and gas production within the UK starkly contrasts with the urgent backdrop of a global climate crisis and widespread public dissent.
This situation underscores a vital truth that often gets lost in the cacophony of political discourse: the responsibility for meaningful change lies with us and us alone. No one is coming to save us but us. The true power of change resides within our collective action, our ability to come together in cooperation, and our ability to foster a sense of solidarity among ourselves.