The Geopolitics of the Arctic
The New Frontier in Global Geopolitics and Climate Change
The Arctic, a vast icy expanse, has long been a theatre for geopolitical tensions and strategies. Its strategic location, rich natural resources, and recent climate change impacts have fueled international interest, fundamentally shaping the Arctic’s role in the world. This article dives into the multifaceted geopolitics of this region, exploring its historical significance, the impacts of industrialism, the role of the Cold War, post-Cold War developments, the rising influence of Asian countries, and the implications of rapid environmental changes.
The Age of Exploration and Colonization
The Arctic’s history is deeply intertwined with exploration, colonization, conflict, and cooperation, strongly reflecting broader themes of human history. The region’s first recorded exploration dates back to the Viking era, when these seafarers explored and settled in regions like the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Labrador. Their presence in Greenland and Labrador eventually faded, but it laid the foundation for the Nordic Arctic identity, which is still prevalent today and extends from Greenland to Norway and Sweden. Greenland underwent a second colonization attempt by Denmark, which lasted until 1979, when it moved towards self-government, and expanded self-rule in 2009. This first period of exploration and colonization marked the beginning of a quest for trade routes, like the Northern Passage.
In the late 1500s, a group of Cossacks embarked on a rapid conquest of Siberia, driven by the lucrative fur trade in the region. This led to the Russian government asserting control over the area and establishing a fur tax, known as Yasak, which was required from all adult men living there. The Russian administration of Siberia during this period was marked by neglect and misuse of power. It wasn't until the 1800s that reforms were introduced to better define the rights and responsibilities of the Indigenous populations in the region. The most significant changes came after the October Revolution in 1917, with the introduction of the Declaration of Rights of the Peoples of Russia. This declaration, at least on paper, granted all inhabitants of Russia, regardless of their ethnic background, the right to ethnic self-determination.
In the 16th century, Jacques Cartier established a French colonial presence in North America, marking a major step in the European exploration and settlement of the continent. During this time, English and Dutch traders also sought to find the Northeast Passage, a potential trade route through the Arctic regions. Russian exploration led to the establishment of the Russian American Company, with a Russian presence in the region lasting until 1867, when Alaska was sold to the United States. The Klondike Gold Rush in the 1890s transformed the region, leading to increased U.S. interest and the eventual statehood of Alaska in 1959. The Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971 was a pivotal piece of legislation that addressed the rights and claims of the Indigenous peoples of Alaska. Overall, the expansion and colonization of North America by various European powers, including France, England, the Netherlands, and Russia, transformed the Arctic and had a profound impact on its indigenous populations.
The Impact of Early Industrialism
Early industrialism in the 20th century brought significant changes to the Arctic, transforming the relationship between Europeans, Indigenous populations, and the environment. The pro-industrial era was characterized by a mutual dependence between colonial powers and the indigenous populations, as well as the natural environment, for the procurement of valuable resources such as furs, fish, and whales.
The transition to industrial mining, the exploitation of forest resources, and the push towards large-scale industrial development laid the groundwork for significant capital investments and state-supported infrastructure projects, such as the construction of railroads. This shift wasn’t limited to large-scale operations but also impacted traditional activities such as reindeer herding and fishing, leading to further marginalization of Indigenous communities and environmental degradation.
The creation of the Soviet Union also saw a push towards industrial development in the Arctic, aimed at exploiting the region’s resources to achieve self-sufficiency. This era was characterized by the use of forced labour, the construction of massive infrastructure projects, and an emphasis on accessing and developing raw material sources, notably with the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the development of the Noril'sk metal complex - the world’s leading producer of nickel and palladium.
Cold War: Transforming the Arctic into a Military Theatre
The Cold War era saw a radical militarization of the Arctic, turning it into a strategic military front. Initially marked by WWII submarine warfare, the Arctic's strategic importance grew exponentially during the Cold War, as the United States and the Soviet Union escalated their military presence in the region
Both the USA and the Soviet Union deployed nuclear submarines, set up naval and airbases, and conducted nuclear tests; the most notable ones were the Cannikin test, on Amchitka Island, Alaska, by the United States Atomic Energy Commission and the test carried out by the Soviet Union in Novaya Zemlya.
The development of early warning systems and strategic intelligence further emphasized the Arctic’s strategic importance. For example, the United States established a network of early warning stations that extended from Alaska to Greenland, designed to detect potential threats and ensure national security.
The Cold War legacy in the Arctic is a complex interplay of military build-up, nuclear safety concerns, and the beginning of environmental consciousness. This period marked a significant turning point in the region’s history, paving the way for the establishment of environmental organisations and the awakening and empowerment of Indigenous communities.
Post-Cold War Arctic Developments: Towards Peace and Cooperation
The end of the Cold War spurred a shift in the Arctic region, steering it towards peace and cooperation. The increasing concern over a global nuclear conflict and the possibility of the Arctic becoming a battleground highlighted the urgent need for peaceful relations. This urgency was further amplified by the environmental crisis characterized by pollution and radioactive waste contamination in the Arctic, which galvanized the peace movement of the 1980s.
Mikhail Gorbachev, the last president of the Soviet Union, played a pivotal role in this transition. In a landmark speech delivered in Murmansk in 1987, he proposed transforming the Arctic into a zone of peace. He advocated for disarmament, sustainable development of Arctic resources, scientific research, environmental protection, and the opening of the Northern Sea Route to international shipping. (Gorbachev, 1987)
Gorbachev’s speech helped to catalyse a significant environmental awakening that followed. Indigenous peoples, NGOs, local governments, activists, and academics began to unite for the cause of environmental stewardship in the Arctic. This collective effort led to the establishment of the Arctic Council in 1996 established by eight Arctic states: Russia, the USA, Canada, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark (including Greenland), and Iceland. The Council become a symbol of a new era of cross-border cooperation, focusing on environmental protection and political stability, and reaffirming a commitment to sustainable development in the Arctic, setting it apart from other regions and highlighting its unique potential for collaborative governance and conservation efforts.
The Arctic in the 21st Century: Climate Change and Rising Asian Influence
Today, the Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, heating up three to four times quicker than the rest of the world. One of the most visible signs of this warming is the dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice. Since 1979, when the U.S. government started taking measurements, the Arctic has lost over 2 million square kilometres of ice, a staggering 45% reduction in recent years. (Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent)
Sea ice plays a crucial role in our climate system by reflecting 50% to 70% of the sunlight back into the atmosphere. In contrast, the dark ocean surfaces exposed by melting ice only reflect about 6% of the sunlight, contributing to the acceleration of the warming process. As the ice continues to melt, a feedback loop is created, perpetuating the cycle of warming, even under scenarios of low emissions. This ongoing change will have widespread impacts, affecting both local ecosystems and human communities around the globe. These impacts are becoming increasingly evident today, underscoring the urgent need to address the challenges posed by the rapid warming of the Arctic region.
For centuries, the Arctic has been influenced by global politics and economics. This vast, icy region is not isolated; instead, it is deeply connected to global shifts in power and economic trends. Nowadays, we are witnessing a power transition from Western countries to Eastern ones, profoundly impacting the Arctic’s role in the world.
In today’s global landscape, the Arctic is increasingly influenced by the rise of Asia which held a substantial portion of the global economy. For instance, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report has predicted the 21st century to be an “Asian century,” in which Asia produces 52% of global GDP (Bank, 2011). This shift in economic power has profound implications for the Arctic.
The rapid ice melt is opening up new possibilities for resource exploitation and navigation routes, leading to increased interest from several Asian countries. This raises the question of how the existing powers should respond – whether to integrate the rising powers into the international system or suppress them and exclude them.
The Arctic States answered this question in Kiruna in 2013, when they granted observer status to five Asian states (China, Japan, India, South Korea, and Singapore), in addition to several European non-Arctic countries. (Council, n.d.) This decision reflects the recognition of the Arctic’s global significance and the dynamic and evolving nature of the Arctic’s role in the world.
However, this inclusive approach also poses questions about the future governance of the Arctic. The region's future is being shaped by global competition for its resources, strategic military interests, and the need for sustainable environmental management. To ensure the longevity and effectiveness of “Arctic exceptionalism,” it is necessary to enhance regional governance and more deeply integrate indigenous communities into the decision-making process.
For the rising powers, such as China, the question is whether to accept the existing international system or to reject and reshape it. China has positioned itself as an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs and geographically a “near-Arctic” state in its 2018 Arctic Policy White Paper, (China’s Arctic Policy, 2018). For now, the country’s choice has been to work inside existing international institutions while seeking to change the system to pursue its own interests.
The multiple geopolitical trends, movements, and personalities involved in the Arctic add instability to the system. Among the global challenges making the situation more complex, climate change stands out as the most prominent. However, the rise of AI safety, the expansion of automation, conflicts, and demographic shifts add layers of complexity to the power dynamics. Specifically, demographic changes are notable in countries like China, which is experiencing a population decline, and India, where the population continues to grow. Additionally, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double in size in the coming decades. We are also entering an era of great migration, driven by factors such as climate change, conflict, and economic disparity. (Dumont, 2015). Each one of these mega-trends will change the balance of power, and we don’t know how this will unfold. But one thing is clear, these developments are introducing even more unpredictability and instability into the global system.
Climate change will open the Arctic sea routes. This will massively change the balance of power. Maritime logistics are hugely important. In 2018, China unveiled its Polar Silk Road (PSR), an ambitious extension of its Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at opening new maritime routes through the Arctic Ocean to connect East Asia with Western Europe. Through significant investments in infrastructure, scientific research, and promoting "practical cooperation," China seeks to establish itself as a key player in Arctic development (Nakako & Li, 2018), (Christopher Barich, 2022). The project also highlighted China's commitment to studying climate change effects in the Arctic, demonstrated by its active participation in research and the establishment of the Yellow River Station on Svalbard.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, the emphasis on the Polar Silk Road project has been notably waned. This development raises questions about the durability of the project and China’s broader ambitions in the Arctic. Whether this is a temporary setback or a fundamental re-evaluation of China’s long-term goals remains uncertain. (Lamazhapov, Stensdal, & Hegg, 2023). Despite the slowdown of the Polar Silk Road development, China has continued to invest in Arctic projects like Yamal LNG. However, Russia maintains control, and China continues to diversify its energy sources. (Doshi, Alexis , & Zhang, 2021)
In the coming decades, the Arctic is poised for profound changes. By the mid-21st century, the region will see a significant reduction in show and sea-ice cover, leading to greater warming. This, in turn, will spur the growth of more vegetation, altering the delicate balance of the tundra. The average temperature in the Arctic is projected to rise by a staggering 4°C.
The implications of these changes extend far beyond the Arctic Circle. The thawing tundra is likely to release significant amounts of greenhouse gases, further driving global warming. Moreover, shifts in oceanic and atmospheric circulation could have ripple effects, impacting weather patterns and climates across the globe. (Overland & et, 2019)
While the scientific projections of the environmental changes in the Arctic are clear, the future of economic and social development in the region remains less certain. Policymakers and stakeholders face the challenge of addressing the consequences of these environmental changes. The Arctic’s economy, heavily dependent on natural resources and vulnerable to climate change, faces an uncertain future. Similarly, the social fabric of Arctic communities, particularly those of Indigenous peoples with deep ties to the land and its ecosystems, will undergo significant changes.
The future of this unique and fragile ecosystem hangs in the balance. The decisions we make today will shape the Arctic's trajectory for generations to come. The dramatic transformation of the Arctic due to climate change demands our immediate focus and collective action to mitigate and adapt to the challenges facing this vital region.
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