The ocean, which covers about 70% of the Earth’s surface, plays a crucial role in regulating the planet’s climate. It acts as a massive heat sink, absorbing approximately 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. As the ocean’s temperature rises, it increases the amount of heat and moisture released into the atmosphere. This exchange of heat and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere is a fundamental component of the Earth’s climate system.
However, as the ocean’s temperature continues to rise, this exchange becomes increasingly unpredictable, leading to erratic weather patterns. This unpredictability manifests in the amplification of wind patterns and an increase in the intensity of rainfall events. Such erratic weather phenomena are not only disruptive to human societies but also pose substantial threats to the world’s biodiversity and ecosystems. The stability of these systems is crucial for the processes that support all life on Earth.
A recent paper by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy provides a comparative analysis of global temperatures at the peaks of the three most recent strong El Ninos (1997–98, 2015–16, and 2023–24). The paper reveals that the rate of global warming has significantly increased, despite the declining strength of El Ninos.
In 2023, global temperatures have shot up to a shocking degree. It's unprecedented in how fast it's heating up, and there is a real danger of losing control of the Earth system. The world is surpassing the 1.5°C threshold and is on track to reach much higher temperatures unless measures are taken to rectify the Earth’s energy imbalance.
References: Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Trenberth, K.E. et al. New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5
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