Early Warnings about the Greenhouse Effect
During the early 1970s, environmental issues were becoming increasingly prominent on the global stage. The first Earth Day was celebrated in 1970, and the first United Nations Conference on the Human Environment was held in Stockholm in June 1972. It was also becoming increasingly clear that the greenhouse effect was significantly impacting the climate. Studies from that era revealed a concerning trend: throughout the 20th century, the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere rose at a rate 25 times higher than the historical average. Since the 1950s, many unusual changes have been observed throughout the climate system as a result of global warming and in the 1970s, scientists became increasingly convinced that human activities were the primary cause of warming. Research has also shown the vital role of the ocean’s biological productivity in controlling the build-up of CO2 in the atmosphere. Furthermore, water vapour was found to be an important component in cloud formation, which, in turn, could influence weather patterns and climate.
Despite the advancements in understanding global change, or maybe because of that, the questions about the root causes of global warming increased. The realisation that the climate was changing prompted scientists to advocate for a comprehensive, international, and interdisciplinary research programme to address these complex questions and further our understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change.
As early as 1970, at a conference on "Technological Changes and the Human Environment" at the California Institute of Technology, Thomas Malone, the founding Secretary General of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) , called for an "intensive study" of the "greenhouse effect" caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. In 1977, Roger Revelle, in a report by the Geophysics Study Committee, further emphasized the same issue. Revelle warned that the industrial civilization “may face a major decision over the next few decades–whether to continue reliance on fossil fuels as principal sources of energy or to invest the research and engineering effort and capital that will make it possible to substitute other energy sources for fossil fuels within the next 50 years.”
In the meantime, other pressing environmental issues, such as deforestation, desertification, the degradation of environmental quality, and rapid population growth, were grabbing the attention of scientists, citizens, and environmental groups. Additionally, a series of natural disasters across the world, such as droughts and famine in Africa and extreme winter and extreme weather events across the world, further heightened public awareness and concern about environmental challenges.
The Environmental Bilateral
In this context, both the US and the Soviet Union sought to find areas of common interest and mutual benefit amid their broader Cold War rivalry. Environmental protection emerged as such an area. Perhaps this was the most important legacy of the 1972 Stockholm Declaration: the recognition that global challenges are interlinked and that their solution was based on intergovernmental cooperation.
In May 1972, a historic event took place during the Cold War era. U.S. President Richard Nixon became the first American president to visit the Soviet Union, travelling to Moscow for a summit meeting with General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. The Moscow summit, held from May 22–30, 1972, marked a significant moment in the tense relationship between the two superpowers. During the meetings, President Nixon and General Secretary Brezhnev signed several important agreements, including the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I).
The other important agreement that was signed during the summit was the Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection, commonly known as the "Environmental Bilateral." The agreement covered a wide range of environmental issues, including air and water pollution, marine pollution, biodiversity conservation, and the effects of environmental changes on human health. It also aimed at identifying ways to preserve the Arctic and subarctic ecological systems and studying the influence of environmental changes on climate. The agreement that was signed on May 23, 1972, by US President Richard Nixon and the Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, Nikolai V. Podgorny, was symbolic of a brief thaw in the Cold War, demonstrating that even rival superpowers could find common ground on global issues like environmental protection.
The agreement led to the establishment of a US-USSR Joint Committee on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection. This committee was responsible for overseeing the implementation of the agreement and for facilitating cooperation between scientific and technical communities in both countries. Furthermore, a Working Group (Working Group VIII) was formed to deal with the human influence on climate. Its activities included the study and monitoring of the changing levels of atmospheric constituents that might modify climate and the development of climate modelling. One of the group’s scientific priorities was the study of the climate of the late Pleistocene and Holocene eras as a way to understand natural climate variability.
The Environmental Bilateral is considered the most successful of the cooperation agreements between the United States and the Soviet Union. In a report published in both English and Russian, a working group convened in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) from June 13–21, 1981, made several key findings:
Increasing Greenhouse Gases: It stated that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is gradually increasing as more fossil fuels are burned. By studying climate models, they showed that as carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, global temperatures will also rise.
Potential Consequences: It warned that this warming could have important consequences on the biosphere, agriculture, and other economic activities.
Need for International Collaboration: It concluded that in order “to anticipate these consequences in useful detail,” it was necessary to understand climate, and that required “the full effort of the international scientific community.”
The Group proposed an ambitious plan to develop a network of five geosynchronous satellites that would be monitored through international cooperation. By leveraging the latest technological capabilities and the increased computer power that had made it possible to process the vast amounts of data from space-based observations, scientists would be able to simultaneously observe and study all the interconnected components of the Earth system, including the atmosphere, the oceans, the solid Earth, and the plants and animals. By understanding their interactions and the impact of human activities on climate, the world would be able to address the challenges facing our environment.
Geopolitical Dynamics: Then and Now
The 1972 Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection between the US and the Soviet Union can be compared, from a geopolitical standpoint, with the current agreements and cooperation on climate change between the US and China. In both cases, it is demonstrated that there is a willingness to collaborate on environmental/climate issues despite broader political differences. However, despite the similarities, there are notable differences in context, scope, and geopolitical dynamics.
The 1972 Agreement was signed during the Cold War, a period marked by suspicion and competition between the two superpowers. It served as a symbol of mutual understanding and a step towards reducing tensions. It was less about the direct impact on environmental protection and more about opening channels of communication and starting to build trust between two rivalries. The scope of the agreement was limited. Although groundbreaking for its time, it didn’t address the scale of global environmental challenges. This was partly because the full extent of these challenges was not yet fully understood, despite, in the US at least, the 1965 report by the President's Science Advisory Committee Panel on Environmental Pollution, which had officially recognized carbon dioxide from fossil fuels as a potential global problem.
Also, as early as the late 1960s, oil and gas companies, including those associated with the American Petroleum Institute, were aware of the potential climate impacts of carbon dioxide emissions. Studies commissioned by the industry at that time recognised that CO2 was "the only air pollutant which has proven to be of global importance," highlighting concerns about its potential to cause global warming.
A 1968 industry-commissioned report starkly explained that the use of fossil fuels was releasing carbon that had been buried for millennia. The report predicted that if the burning of fossil fuels continued, “it is likely that noticeable increases in temperature could occur,” resulting in warming oceans, melting ice caps, and sea levels that could rise by as much as four feet per decade. The authors concluded that “there seems to be no doubt that the potential damage to our environment could be severe”. This early industry awareness of the climate risks associated with fossil fuel use is a significant revelation, as it suggests that the oil and gas companies had access to scientific information about the potential consequences of their operations long before these issues became widely known to the public.
The Complexity of Modern US-China Cooperation
The nature of cooperation between the United States and China has become more complex in recent times, and it occurs against a backdrop of tensions over trade, human rights, territorial claims, and technological dominance.
Their cooperation has become more pragmatic and focused on concrete goals, such as emissions reductions and the development of clean energy technologies. This shift reflects the growing urgency of the climate crisis and the recognition that neither nation can combat it in isolation. It’s also representative of a more interconnected and multipolar world. It underscores the understanding that global survival requires immediate and coordinated action, transcending the traditional geopolitical rivalries that have often characterised the relationship between the two superpowers.
Given their status as the world's largest carbon emitters, the cooperation between the United States and China is crucial in the global fight against climate change. Despite the complexities and tensions that exist between the two nations, their ability to work together on climate-related objectives represents a small but vital step towards a somewhat more manageable future for the planet.
References and sources:
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