COP28: Half-measures and loopholes for fossil fuels bear the mark of the oil industry's victory
All you need to know about the COP28 Agreement and the favourable headlines around the world is what Saudi Arabia's energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Wednesday, 14 December in an interview with Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television: "What is there now, the issue of immediate and gradual disposal (of fossil fuels) has been buried," adding that the deal would not affect the ability of the world's top oil exporter to sell its crude.
It took our global leaders a staggering 28 years to finally acknowledge the detrimental effects of our addiction to fossil fuels, a problem that has been known to the rest of the world since 1992, when the world leaders of 154 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Specifically, Article 2 of the 1992 Convention committed countries to stabilising “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
COPs were envisioned as a vehicle for solving global heating, and in COP28 there is a stronger mandate to tackle the root causes of climate change than we had before. However, "transitioning away from fossil fuels" is not the needed action to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system and meet the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.
The COP28 agreement saw pledges (promises) from numerous countries and companies in three key areas: renewables, efficiency, and methane. Approximately 130 countries, responsible for 40% of global CO2 emissions and 37% of total global energy demand, have pledged to triple global renewable power capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Additionally, a methane pledge aims to eliminate methane emissions and routine flaring by 2030, with 50 companies, accounting for about 35% of combined oil and gas production, committing to this goal.
While these promises are positive steps forward in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that they fall short of what is necessary to achieve international climate targets, particularly the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The Climate Action Tracker graph below illustrates the glaring gap between projected greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 and the lower levels required to align with the 1.5°C goal.
One cannot ignore the evident influence of petrostates in shaping the COP28 agreement. The agreement's half-measures and loopholes for fossil fuels bear the mark of the oil industry's victory. Not surprisingly, the world's largest oil producers have applauded the agreement's focus on an "orderly" transition away from fossil fuels. This approach aligns perfectly with their plans, allowing them to continue and expand their operations and profit from them in the interim while they gradually shift towards renewable energy sources.
The COP28 agreement is far from historic. Instead, it represents the bare minimum effort required, offering little to prevent the collapse of Earth's systems and protect the world's most vulnerable populations. Furthermore, it has become evident that the COP process has become ineffective and compromised by fossil fuel lobbyists. The failure to deliver substantial climate change action highlights the urgent need for innovative approaches, including citizen assemblies or the creation of new binding treaties bypassing the COP process and setting new diplomatic norms, such as The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
Renewable energy holds the key to a sustainable future. Governments, businesses, and individuals must prioritise the development and deployment of renewable energy technologies. This includes solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and bioenergy, among others. By harnessing the power of these clean and abundant energy sources, we can significantly reduce our carbon footprint and mitigate the worst effects of climate change.
Public awareness and engagement are vital for driving change. We have to develop organising strategies so that people identify climate change as an issue that affects them directly. At the same time, we all must recognise our obligations towards future generations by maintaining the vital ecosystems on which society depends. Whatever we do to increase prosperity and raise the living standards of the least well-off must be consistent with this basic commitment to social and environmental stewardship.
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