February 10, 2025—A Deadline Missed, A Climate Crisis Deepened
The Year We Could Have Acted—But Didn't
Today was supposed to be a milestone—a moment for nations to reaffirm their commitment to fighting climate change. The task was simple: submit updated climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. The reality? A global shrug.
According to Carbon Brief, out of 195 signatories, only 10 countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035. Just two G7 nations—the US and the UK—met the deadline. However, the US submission came before Donald Trump’s return to the White House last month. True to his campaign promise, his administration has already begun pulling the country out of the Paris Agreement—again.
The other countries to meet the deadline are– Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador and Saint Lucia. The rest, including major emitters like China, India, and the European Union, are nowhere to be seen.
The UNFCCC's NDC Registry provides real-time updates on submissions, and more are expected in the coming days. But given the stakes, the delay speaks volumes.
Back at COP26 in Glasgow (2021), world leaders rallied behind a hopeful slogan: “Keep 1.5°C Alive.” Fast forward to 2025, and that ambition feels hollow. In hindsight, was it ever truly alive? Or it was already dead, destined to be deployed only as an empty slogan.
Some climate scientists think 1.5C is no longer feasible while others believe we can get back on track, but only with far more drastic action. Yet, instead of decisive measures, the world is moving in the opposite direction.
In reality, we are more likely to exceed this threshold. Dr. James Hansen, the climate scientist who first warned the world about global warming in 1988, is sounding the alarm once again, only this time with even greater urgency.
In their paper, Hansen et al, argue that the pace of global heating has been significantly underestimated, and the international goal of keeping warming below 2°C is now impossible. The climate crisis is unfolding faster than scientists predicted, and if we don’t act urgently, we may soon cross a threshold from which there is no return.
Time is running out, and the trajectory we’re on is unsustainable. Every fraction of a degree matters. Every year wasted makes the crisis worse. The question is: how much worse are we willing to let it get?
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Notes:
Analysis: 95% of countries miss UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges - Carbon Brief
Trump orders U.S. withdrawal from Paris Agreement, revokes Biden climate actions: NPR
Rise in carbon dioxide off track for limiting global warming to 1.5°C - Met Office
Is 1.5C still realistic? The crumbling consensus over key climate target - Financial Times
Press Release: Paris Agreement Target of 1.5°C Will Be Exceeded as Increased Warming Pushed 2024 to Another All-Time Record - Berkeley Earth