Breaking all the Wrong Records
Global Average Temperature Exceeds 2°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels for the First Time
The global average temperature on November 17 and November 18, 2023, was more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, the first time on record, according to Europe’s Copernicus climate monitor.
“Final numbers out from @CopernicusECMWF for the 17 Nov temperature anomaly at 2.07°C above preindustrial and provisional data for 18th Nov at 2.06°C above preindustrial. Now two Nov 2023 days where global temperature exceeded 2°C in ERA5,” tweeted Sam Burgess at the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
This does not mean that we have breached Paris Agreement levels, which refer to averages covering 20 or more years, not variability from year to year. Like the 1.5 and 2.0 °C goals, this is symbolic. The World Meteorological Organisation estimates a 66% chance "that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year," although this may be temporary as the temperature naturally fluctuates. According to the IPCC, the world is currently on course to pass 2°C of warming around 2040.
We shouldn't, however, downplay the significance of @CopernicusECMWF 's statement that we've passed ΔT 2.0 °C (ΔT = increase in global average temperature compared to pre-industrial levels) two days in a row. It's a significant milestone.
The year 2023 is expected to be the hottest year in history, with every month since June breaking previous records and droughts, massive wildfires, and fierce storms ravaging swathes of the planet. To prevent exceeding 1.5°C of warming, the world should limit future emissions to about 220 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. With annual emissions at around 40 gigatonnes and still rising, this is an almost impossible goal. The UN has already warned that the world is on track for a “hellish” 3C of global heating, based on the current carbon-cutting policies.
Despite all these, governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 that would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and none have committed to reducing coal, oil, and gas production in line with this goal.
The world leaders will meet in the United Arab Emirates for the COP28 conference next week. Allow me to remind you that ADNOC, the UAE's state oil company, whose sitting CEO is the president of the COP28, has the largest net-zero-busting expansion plans of any company in the world. This means that the company plans are not in line with the goal of achieving net-zero emissions and are not compatible with the efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
But sure, let the sitting CEO of an oil company be the president of a UN climate conference that is supposed to negotiate goals for tackling climate change and advance climate action.
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