Greenland: The Icy Crossroads of Climate, Resources, and Geopolitics

Why Greenland Matters

Mar 28, 2025

The Arctic is heating up—and not just in temperature. Warming at three to four times the rate of the rest of the world, the Arctic is experiencing a transformation that is reshaping not only its environment and the climate but also global geopolitics.

When Greenland Sneezes, The Planet Catches Cold

Climate scientist David Holland calls Greenland an "open refrigerator door" or “ thermostat for a warming world.” Since 1979, the Arctic has lost more than 2 million square kilometres of sea ice—a staggering 45% reduction in just a few decades. Greenland’s ice sheet melting is driving up sea levels, threatening coastal cities around the globe. If Greenland’s ice sheet were to melt entirely, sea levels could rise by over 7 metres (24 feet).

But the story doesn’t end there. Greenland’s unique geography influences daily weather for billions. Its high-pressure systems can send icy Arctic air into Europe and North America, while disruptions in the island’s ice balance wreak havoc on the jet stream, intensifying storms and altering seasonal patterns worldwide.

Even more alarming is Greenland’s role in disrupting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - a vital system of ocean currents that forms a loop that spans the whole length of the Atlantic Ocean. The vast amount of heat, water and carbon it exchanges in the atmosphere makes it a major feature of the climate system, controlling the weather and marine ecosystems. Without an effectively operating AMOC, the world would face increasingly extreme weather, leading to disruptions in agriculture, destabilised ecosystems, and threats to global stability—consequences that could affect everyone on the planet.

Geopolitical Chessboard

Greenland is the world’s largest island (2,166,086 sq. km (836,330 sq. mi) and the most sparsely populated territory. About 56,000 people live in this vast area mostly indigenous Inuit people. Beneath Greenland’s icy surface lie treasures of strategic importance and economic opportunity: reserves of oil and natural gas, vital minerals and rare earth elements, such as copper, lithium, and cobalt —essential for modern technologies. As the ice melts, these resources are becoming more accessible, triggering a race among global powers and big mining companies for control.

At the same time, it opens new possibilities for navigation routes that could rival traditional trade lanes. These routes could transform global trade, cutting transit times between Europe and Asia by nearly half.

But Greenland’s significance extends far beyond its natural resources and shipping lanes. Strategically positioned between North America, Europe, and Russia, Greenland has long been a critical geopolitical asset. The U.S. has long understood its value, maintaining a major military base at Pituffik (formerly Thule) since World War II. This base is a critical piece of the U.S.’s ballistic missile early warning system, securing U.S. dominance in a rapidly changing Arctic landscape.

Washington’s Arctic Obsession

The U.S. president famously called Greenland a “large real estate deal.” While his proposal to buy the island was dismissed as outlandish, it reflected U.S.’s concerns, about economic security, energy independence, and the rising competition from China in the Arctic.

China is not geographically positioned in the Arctic, but it invested heavily in the region. Alongside four other Asian countries( Japan, India, South Korea, and Singapore), it joined the Arctic Council as an observer state in 2013. Its role in the Arctic governance is currently limited, but China’s growing investments in infrastructure and resources across the region suggest a long-term vision of challenging the existing order to align with its own interests. Should Greenland achieve full control over its resources and decision-making, China’s interest would likely intensify, potentially reshaping the dynamics of Arctic geopolitics.

The U.S. has responded with a mix of economic pressure and overt threats. Recent warnings of tariffs targeting Denmark—Greenland’s administrative authority—and today’s high-profile visit by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to the Pituffik Space Base (28 March 2025) underscore Washington’s intent to reassert its influence in this increasingly strategic region. The U.S. president even suggested annexing the territory, even refusing to rule out military force as a possible means. What might once have been seen as a diplomatic opportunity—a vice-presidential visit—now carries a potential threat. These are not normal times, and it’s not difficult to see why many in Nuuk and Copenhagen fear the United States’s ambitions may be edging toward a unilateral assertion of control—even against the will of Greenland’s people.

For the U.S. maintaining dominance in Greenland is about more than territory. It represents a broader effort to counter rival powers in an Arctic landscape transformed by climate change—a region that is rapidly becoming the next great geopolitical frontier.

The Independence Question

For Greenlanders, the stakes are deeply personal. While the island enjoys significant self-governance, it remains financially dependent on Denmark, and foreign and defence policies remain under Danish control. Denmark continues to assert that Greenland is “not for sale,” with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen emphasizing the island's autonomy.

Calls for independence have grown louder in recent years, driven by historical grievances, including allegations of forced contraceptive measures and the separation of Inuit children from their families in the 20th century, as well as a desire to control their resources. Washington’s refusal to rule out military coercion has prompted a rebuke from Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede who said on Facebook only a month ago: "Let me repeat it — Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders. Our future and fight for independence is our business.”

Exploiting the island's vast resources could provide financial stability, but Greenlanders are deeply concerned about the environmental consequences and the potential for an influx of foreign workers that could disrupt their way of life. Greenland's elections in 2021 highlighted strong local opposition to uranium mining due to environmental concerns, particularly with projects like Kuannersuit.

As Greenlanders weigh their options, they face a pivotal question: can they harness their vast natural wealth without sacrificing their environment and way of life?

The Future of Greenland

Greenland's story is far from over. Washington’s rhetoric signals that Greenland’s fate is not just a matter of local politics but a global battleground for influence. This icy giant embodies a modern paradox: it’s both a victim of climate change and a potential saviour for a resource-hungry world. As its ice melts and its geopolitical value rises, Greenland will become a focal point for the world’s most pressing issues—climate change, resource competition, and the ambitions of global superpowers. Whether it remains tied to Denmark, gains independence, or becomes entangled in global rivalries, Greenland’s future will shape the Arctic—and the planet.

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