Headlines from a Warming World No 14
The Hottest Summer in 2,000 Years, Anthropogenic Drought in Central Brazil, Heatwaves in Pakistan and India, Climate in the Courts: South Korea
Summer 2023: The Hottest Summer in 2,000 Years
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023 marks the first time on record that every single day within a year has exceeded 1°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level for that time of year.
Nearly 50% of the days in 2023 recorded temperatures more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This is significant as this threshold is widely recognised in climate science and policy, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to below 2°C, and preferably below 1.5°C, to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
Moreover, two days in November 2023 marked the first instance on record of temperatures exceeding 2 °C above the levels from 1850–1900. This breach is alarming as it highlights the accelerated pace of warming.
Additionally, an unedited version of a paper published in Nature on May 14, 2024, titled ‘2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years’ reports that the summer of 2023 was the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2000 years. Researchers can reconstruct past climates with remarkable accuracy by studying tree growth patterns. Each tree ring represents a year of growth, and variations in rings’ width can indicate changes in temperature and precipitation.
Using this method, scientists found that the summer of 2023 was 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous record. While this might appear to be a minor rise, it represents a significant jump, underscoring the severity of the recent temperature increases.
The driving force behind this warming is no mystery. While the extreme temperatures of 2023 are amplified by an El Niño event, it is the relentless burning of fossil fuels that has resulted in a rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, trapping more heat and pushing temperatures higher.
A Looming Crisis: Anthropogenic Drought in Central Brazil Unprecedented During Last 700 Years
Imagine a world where agricultural yields plummet, hydropower production dwindles, and public water supply systems struggle to meet demand. This is the harsh reality that drought brings, leading to agricultural losses, reduced energy production from hydropower, and strained water resources.
In a recent paper in Nature, titled ‘Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years’ the scientists refer to a drought “as a period with a hydrologic deficit when the water evapotranspiration (the process by which water moves from the Earth’s surface (such as soil, lakes, and plants) into the atmosphere) exceeds the input from effective precipitation. This type of drought is also commonly known as “hydrologic drought,” and its effects are most apparent in reduced streamflow.”
Since the 1970s, a disturbing trend has emerged-a widespread drying of land areas across the globe, as observed through records and models. This phenomenon is attributed to a combination of factors, including higher surface temperatures, increased evaporation and less rainfall. The study specifically shows that the risk of drought in the savannah regions in central-eastern Brazil is on the rise. Data from stalagmites and weather records suggest that this drought is linked to human-induced temperature rise and greenhouse gas emissions. These conditions are unlike anything we’ve seen in the past 720 years.
In short, the study points to a future in which drought could become a major issue, particularly in areas like central Brazil, a powerhouse of intensive agriculture and home to important ecosystems. Preparing for the potential repercussions on agriculture, forests, and urban centres is essential.
Extreme Temperatures in Pakistan and India
The ancient town of Mohenjo Daro, in Sindh, Pakistan, renowned for its archaeological sites dating back to the Indus Valley Civilization (3300 BCE to 1300 BCE), has been grappling in the past few days with an intense heatwave. On May 27, temperatures had risen to as high as 52.2 °C (126 °F). This is the highest temperature of this summer season in Pakistan.
However, this temperature is still lower than the town’s and the country’s record highs of 53.5°C (128.3°F), recorded again in Mohenjo Daro, on May 26, 2010.
Meanwhile, India is also experiencing a severe heatwave, with temperatures in Delhi reaching a record high of 49.9 Celsius (121.8 Fahrenheit). This is an all-time high for the city, significantly above normal.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a red alert for northwest India, indicating a high risk of heat illnesses and heat stroke in all ages, particularly for vulnerable individuals.
Exacerbating the situation, Bengaluru, known as India's 'Silicon Valley', is rapidly running out of water. The city has had an unusually hot February and March, and it has received little rainfall in recent years, due in part to human-caused climate change. Water levels are alarmingly low, particularly in poorer areas, resulting in soaring costs and a rapidly dwindling supply. Over a third of the city's 13 million inhabitants rely on groundwater, which is depleting quickly, with city officials reporting that 6,900 of the 13,900 borewells in the city have run dry.
Climate change has also impacted the timing of winter storms, which bring much-needed snow and rain to northern India. These storms now arrive later than they did 70 years ago, exacerbating the risk of severe flooding while, at the same time, reducing vital water supplies for millions of Indians.
Climate in the Courts: South Korea
In a landmark event, the South Korean government finds itself at the centre of the first-ever lawsuit in East Asia challenging governmental climate policies. This groundbreaking legal action brings together plaintiffs of all ages, including adults, children, babies and even an unborn child, all collectively voicing their concerns over the government’s inadequate response to climate change.
South Korea is one of the top ten emitters of carbon in the world. It has taken steps to reduce its own emissions, promising to be carbon neutral by 2050. Critics, however, argue that targets are not ambitious enough, warning they could lead to a temperature rise of 3°C by the end of the century. This would significantly exceed the targets set out in the Paris Agreement
This is the first case in East Asia to challenge government climate policies. A ruling in favour of the plaintiffs could set a significant precedent, potentially sparking a wave of similar climate litigation across East Asia.
Sources and Further Reading
Arasu Siri, India’s Bengaluru is fast running out of water, and a long, scorching summer still looms, AP, 17 March, 2024
Bhuvan Bagga, Indian capital records highest temperature of 49.9 Celsius, Phys.org, 29 May, 2024
Esper , J., Torbenson, M., & Büntgen , U. (2024, May 14). 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years. Nature. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
Akhtar Soomro and Ariba Shahid, Pakistan temperatures cross 52 C in heatwave, Reuters, 28 May, 2024
Stríkis, N. M. (2024, February 24). Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years. Nature. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45469-8
University of Reading. "India's water problems set to get worse as the world warms." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 11 March 2024. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/03/240311205204.htm
Wong Carissa, Why babies in South Korea are suing the government, Nature, 20 May 2024