Headlines from a Warming World no.4
September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies, 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record, Rosebank oilfield, Melting Alps, and the Useless "junk" Carbon Offset Projects.
Mind-boggling
September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies.
2023 is on track to be the warmest year on record.
September was around 1.75°C warmer than the September average for 1850–1900, the preindustrial reference period.
The global temperature for January–September 2023 was 0.52°C higher than average and 0.05°C higher than the equivalent period in the warmest calendar year (2016).
September 2023 has been a record-breaking month for many European countries. Here are some details:
Austria experienced its hottest September since records began 257 years ago, with temperatures about 3.5°C above normal.
Belgium: The average temperature was almost 4°C warmer than the norm, making it the hottest September on record.
France: The French weather authority, Météo-France, reported that the average temperature in September was around 21.5°C, between 3.5°C and 3.6°C above the norm for the 1991-2020 reference period.
Germany: The German weather office, DWD, stated that this September had been the hottest since national records started, almost 4°C higher than the 1961-1990 baseline.
Poland: Poland’s weather institute announced that September temperatures were 3.6°C higher than average and the hottest for the month since records began more than 100 years ago.
Switzerland: National weather bodies in Switzerland also recorded their hottest-ever average September temperatures.
This unseasonably warm weather is part of a larger trend attributed to climate change, which, combined with a strong El Niño, is pushing global surface temperatures higher. The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service expects 2023 to be the hottest year humanity has experienced. It’s a stark reminder of the urgent need to address climate change.
The UK has gone from being a climate leader to a laggard
On 20 September, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a shock announcement that the country will delay its decarbonization plans. The key points in his talk can be summarized as follows: The deadline for selling new petrol and diesel cars, as well as the phasing out of gas boilers, has been pushed back. The ban on buying petrol and diesel cars will now come into effect in 2035. A plan for offshore wind energy is now on hold, and there will be new licences for oil and gas extraction.
This announcement represents a major U-turn in the UK’s climate commitments and has sparked a significant amount of debate and controversy.
Sunak has reaffirmed the UK’s commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, however, the government’s own expert advisers, the Climate Change Committee, do not agree. Sunak has not provided much detail on how this target will be met under the revised policies. He has defended his decision by stating that it is an attempt to take a “more pragmatic, proportionate, and realistic approach” to climate change, but companies, including automobile and energy industries, have expressed concern that the decision could lead to uncertainty and potentially hamper investment in new technologies.
In the meantime, environmental groups are expected to challenge this decision in court, as the government is legally obligated to detail how it will meet its 2050 target.
Rosebank oil field
Also last week the UK government approved the development of the Rosebank oil field, despite warnings about the climate damage of new fossil fuel projects.
Rosebank is the largest undeveloped oil field in UK waters. In its lifetime, it is expected to produce 300 million barrels of oil and could produce 200m tonnes of carbon dioxide. This decision is made deliberately when the parliament is in recess to avoid scrutiny.
Not only that. At a time of a cost-of-living crisis, the taxpayer in Britain is expected to be handing a tax break of $3.75bn to the Norwegian oil and gas giant Equinor which with its British partner Ithaca Energy will develop the oilfield.
The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak says his government is "world-leading" on net zero, when:
England installed just 2 onshore wind turbines in 2022.
The UK government failed to secure a single bid at the offshore wind auction.
The UK government approved the first new coal mine in the country in 30 years.
The UK government's policies fall short of emission reduction targets in the 2030s. At a time when we should be accelerating our efforts towards drastically reducing emissions, it can, all too easily, slow progress. And the longer we continue down this road, the worse things will get. If you are worried about the climate crisis, now is the time to act.
Melting Alps
Switzerland, the country with the most glaciers in Europe, has experienced a decline in its glacier volume over the past two years. This is due to a combination of rising temperatures during summers and limited snowfall during winters, which has led to an acceleration in melting.
The Swiss Academy of Sciences reported that 4% of Switzerland's total glacier volume vanished this year, marking the second-biggest annual decline on record. The largest decline was in 2022, with a 6% drop, marking the biggest thaw since measurements began.
The rate at which small glaciers are melting is alarming. If this trend persists, these glaciers will eventually disappear. Even if we manage to limit global warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, the amount of glacier volume that will remain in Switzerland is expected to be only a third of what it currently is. This highlights the severity of the ongoing climate crisis and the need for immediate action to mitigate its impact.
Majority of carbon offset schemes are "likely junk
78% of all the largest carbon offset schemes are useless, categorized as likely junk or worthless, according to the Guardian and the transnational corporate watchdog NGO Corporate Accountability. This suggests that they cannot be relied upon to cut planet-heating emissions.
Governments, organisations, and businesses have embraced the multibillion-dollar voluntary carbon trading market as a way of showing that they are reducing their greenhouse gas footprint. Carbon offset credits are tradable “allowances” or certificates that allow the purchaser to compensate for one ton of carbon dioxide, or the equivalent in greenhouse gases, by investing in "green" projects (from wind farms to reforestation) that claim to reduce carbon emissions.
However, the evidence suggests that many of these schemes exaggerate climate benefits and underestimate potential harms. Researchers from the Guardian and Corporate Accountability, a non-profit transnational NGO, analyzed the top 50 emission offset projects, and according to their criteria and classification system, they found that:
A total of 39 of the top 50 emission offset projects, or 78% of them, were categorized as likely junk or worthless due to one or more fundamental failings that undermine its promised emission cuts.
Eight others (16%) look problematic, with evidence suggesting they may have at least one fundamental failing and are potentially junk.
The efficacy of the remaining three projects (6%) could not be determined definitively as there was insufficient public, independent information to adequately assess the quality of the credits and/or accuracy of their claimed climate benefits.
Overall, $1.16bn (£937m) of carbon credits have been traded so far from the projects classified by the investigation as likely junk or worthless; a further $400m of credits bought and sold were potentially junk.
If we are serious—and we have to be serious—about reducing emissions, carbon credits should be awarded only for new and permanent emissions-reducing activities.
Something to watch: President Carter's Crisis of Confidence speech.
On July 15, 1979, President Jimmy Carter delivered one of the most important and controversial speeches in recent presidential history. At the time, the United States was in bad condition. Within a short period of time, OPEC raised oil prices multiple times. The rate of unemployment was high. His speech on consumerism, also known as the "malaise" speech, helped lower Carter's already poor approval ratings to just 30% with just a few months until the election.
In his speech, Carter stated, "We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose." He also noted that "Too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns."
Ronald Reagan quickly capitalised on the uproar sparked by the speech."I find no national malaise," said the man who ran on a platform that portrayed America as "a shining city on a hill."
Carter’s speech, a reflection on the state of American society at the time, also serves as a timeless reminder of the pitfalls of consumerism. His prophetic words continue to resonate today as we grapple with the effects of consumer culture on our society and environment. It’s a powerful message that challenges us to rethink our values and priorities.