Headlines from a Warming World no.9
This week: UN Report—Phasing down or phasing up? Increased Warming Rate after 1990; The Aftermath of Hurricane Otis; COP28; Restoring Coral Reefs
Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises.
The 2023 Production Gap report is a startling indictment of runaway climate carelessness (to put it mildly). It reveals that the world’s fossil fuel producers are planning to increase their production by 2030, which would exceed the carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
The energy plans of the petrostates are in contradiction with their net zero emissions commitments and their climate policies. The report profiles 20 fossil fuel-producing nations, which account for 84% of carbon dioxide emissions in 2021.
The planned expansions are not only a climate disaster but also an economic insanity, as they could result in stranded assets and, despite the near-unstoppable energy transition, wasted opportunities to invest in the field of clean energy.
The report estimates that the planned fossil fuel production in 2030 would result in 39 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide emissions, which is more than double the amount consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C (18 Gt) and 50% more than the amount consistent with limiting warming to 2°C (26 Gt)
Governments have various rationales for supporting and expanding fossil fuel production, such as meeting demand, generating revenue, or ensuring energy security. However, the continued production and use of fossil fuels are incompatible with a safe and liveable future. A warming world contributes to various adverse effects, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, shifts in ecosystems, and threats to biodiversity, as well as adverse impacts on health and human rights.
The governments know what they have to do. They should align their fossil fuel production plans with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal, adopt near- and long-term reduction targets, and cooperate to ensure an equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
What about us? Can we prevent the fossil fuel industry from destroying our future? I believe we can if enough of us stand up against this insanity.
Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990
By using a method to filter out the influence of sea-surface temperature patterns on the global mean surface temperature anomaly, scientists have found a consistent warming rate of 0.18 °C/decade for the last 50 years.
Steady course for global surface warming for 50 years.
The warming rate has increased since around 1990 by about 0.016 °C per decade. The article argues that this increase is not captured by most CMIP6 models (an international effort to improve our understanding of, and ability to simulate key climate phenomena and future climate change using a multi-model approach), which tend to overestimate the mean warming rate and underestimate the rate change.
The article discusses the possible causes and implications of the observed warming rate and rate change, such as the effects of aerosol emissions, which can reflect sunlight and cool the Earth’s surface, but their levels have been changing due to efforts to reduce air pollution, as well as ocean heat content and internal variability.
Natural climate variations, such as El Niño and La Niña events, can cause fluctuations in global temperatures.
Oceans absorb about 90 percent of the excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions, protecting land areas but causing long and intense marine heatwaves that harm underwater life due to stress from high temperatures and acidification. Other consequences of the rising heat in the ocean are changes in climate patterns and sea level rise due to thermal expansion of water and melting of ice sheets and glaciers.
Source:
Samset, B. H., Zhou, C., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Lund, M. T., Marotzke, J., & Zelinka, M. D. (2023). Steady global surface warming from 1973 to 2022 but increased warming rate after 1990. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01061-4
The Aftermath of Hurricane Otis
Hurricane Otis, which hit Acapulco on October 25, 2023, was the most intense hurricane ever to strike Mexico's Pacific coast. The storm rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane, leaving little time for preparation and evacuation. It caused catastrophic damage, with 165mph winds, torrential rain and wind gusts that reached 205mph, which is one of the highest ever observed in the world. The storm damaged more than 200,000 homes and killed at least 45 people in Acapulco, a popular tourist spot in one of Mexico's poorest states.
The aftermath of the hurricane revealed a lack of preparedness and an inadequate response from the government and civil organizations. Many residents received no food, water, medicine, or other provisions from the government or civil organisations, and had to rely on neighbours or resort to looting. The Mexican government estimates that rebuilding Acapulco will cost 61 billion pesos ($3.4 billion). However, some experts argue that the economic toll from Hurricane Otis in Acapulco could top $20 billion, far beyond what the government has set aside so far to rebuild it.
Hurricane Otis Causes Catastrophic Damage in Acapulco, Mexico. Video source: NESDIS
The hurricane's impact was devastating, with the destruction of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, ports, and airports. The storm also caused severe damage to highways, bridges, and roads, making access to the port of Acapulco and rural areas of the coast and mountains of Guerrero difficult for several days. The storm also disrupted communication and basic services, leaving the city of 900,000 people incommunicado.
The intensification of storms due to climate change has significant implications for infrastructure, public safety, and the economy. As storms become more destructive, the need for better disaster management strategies, including improved forecasting, early warning systems, and emergency response plans, becomes increasingly important.
COP28
This year’s United Nations climate summit, COP28, is being chaired and hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a petrostate.
The oil and gas industry argues that it can still play a part in the future energy system by using carbon capture and other technologies.
It’s possible, and actually, the future of global carbon capture and storage is seen as essential to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the current situation is indeed urgent, as global emissions are not decreasing.
The continued subsidies to oil and gas and the fact that the sitting CEO of an oil company is the president of COP28 are seen as evidence that their fossil fuel money continues to exert heavy influence at the highest levels of climate policy. Furthermore, the world’s fossil fuel producers are planning expansions that would blow the planet’s carbon budget twice over. This poses a significant threat to humanity's future, as it would lock in greenhouse gas emissions and exacerbate the climate crisis.
The oil industry has been found to lobby extensively against climate change measures, using significant financial resources and sophisticated techniques to influence public opinion and government policies.
For these reasons, these companies should be excluded from COP28 and all future climate discussions.
Mission: Iconic Reefs
Coral reefs in the Florida Keys, located south of the US, are a biological and economic treasure found nowhere else in the mainland United States. However, they face declining health due to rising water temperatures, disease, and damage caused by boaters. Since the late 1970s, healthy coral cover in the Florida Keys has fallen by 90%.
To restore these reefs, NOAA is leading Mission: Iconic Reefs, one of the most ambitious reef restoration efforts ever attempted worldwide. By 2040, the mission hopes to have restored 3 million square feet at 7 iconic reef locations—an area the size of 52 football fields—to at least 25 per cent coral cover, which should be enough to allow them to repair themselves the rest of the way.
With continued climate warming and ocean acidification expected in the foreseeable future, finding and breeding corals tough enough to withstand heat stress and rising acidity must be part of the process.
In Okinawa, home to a diverse range of coral species, coastal fishermen have turned into coral farmers as a response to the decline of coral reefs. This is similar to the concept of reforestation to restore damaged forests.
In addition to this, the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) has launched the world’s first coral reef conservation project using the latest genome research. They are working to conserve coral reefs in Okinawa and around the world by monitoring them using environmental DNA technology established by OIST and conducting research using the latest genome analysis technology.
Coral reefs are not only a vibrant part of the marine ecosystem but also a vital resource for humans. Aside from providing coastal protection and economic value due in part to their contribution to the fishing and tourism industries, coral reefs support more species per unit area than any other marine habitat. They help protect areas such as mangrove forests and seagrass beds that act as nurseries for marine animals. As these ecosystems are interconnected, the health of one can significantly impact the others.
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