Heat Waves, Floods, Storms, and the Significance of Attribution Science
Reading Angry Weather by Friederike Otto
I was reading Angry Weather in Seville, Spain, last week, when storm Aline hit the city and the Andalucia region in general. It brought strong winds of up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall, particularly in Cadiz and Seville. Aline has shattered rainfall records in Madrid since 1860. The El Retiro station, operated by Aemet, the Spanish meteorological agency, recorded an unprecedented downpour, collecting a staggering 114 litres per square meter by midnight.
The storm faded the next day, but a few days later, just a day after I left the city, a second storm, named Bernard, hammered Andalucia with torrential rain and intense winds, causing widespread flooding, damage, and disruption. Eighteen provinces were on alert due to the storm, which caused more than 1,500 incidences in southern AndalucÃa, with Seville recording the largest amount of both incidents and warnings, mainly due to wind.
Is it possible to attribute these storms to climate change? There is evidence that climate change is causing more frequent and severe weather events, but it is still difficult to determine if these two storms or any other extreme weather event is directly caused by climate change. Understanding the link between climate change and these events is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate their impacts. One scientist at the forefront of this research is Friederike Otto, whose work in attribution science has shed light on the extent to which human-induced climate change contributes to extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods.
In Angry Weather, Otto introduces attribution science, a field of study that aims to assess the extent to which human-caused climate change contributes to extreme weather events. Using statistical methods and computer models, scientists compare observed climate data with global climate simulations that include and exclude human influence.
In the book, Otto argues that attribution science can help us understand the role of climate change in extreme weather events and develop strategies to mitigate their impacts in the future. She discusses several significant weather disasters that have occurred in recent years. Some of the most notable ones are Hurricane Harvey, which hit Texas in 2017 and caused widespread flooding and damage, and the European heatwave of 2019, which broke temperature records across the continent and caused numerous deaths. These weather disasters are just a few examples of the many extreme weather events that have occurred in recent years and are consistent with the predictions of climate change models.
The Significance of Attribution Science
Attribution science plays a vital role in our response to climate change. By understanding the extent to which human-induced climate change affects specific extreme weather events, governments can formulate effective climate policies. This knowledge also helps in the development of climate-resilient infrastructure and planning for climate adaptation. When policymakers are aware of the increased likelihood of specific extreme weather events due to climate change, they can take proactive measures to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience within communities.
Attribution science has significant legal and financial implications. Establishing liability for climate-related damages and providing evidence for causal claims can be crucial to holding major greenhouse gas emitters accountable. If specific weather events can be linked to human-induced climate change, it could lead to increased litigation against those responsible. This aspect of attribution science serves as a powerful tool for seeking justice and driving change.
Attribution science is still a young field, and scientists are still trying to improve and standardize the methods that they use to conduct attribution studies. However, through ongoing research and advancements in technology, it is rapidly evolving. The attention it receives in the media raises public awareness of the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events, ultimately garnering greater support for actions to mitigate climate change.
Angry Weather is a well-researched and accessible book that provides a comprehensive overview of attribution science and its role in understanding climate change. It is timely and relevant, given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events around the world, and it highlights the urgency of addressing climate change and the need for immediate action.
Further reading
Murcia Today - Storm Bernard Follows Close Behind Aline In Spain: Weather Forecast October 23-27
Storm Bernard causes chaos in Spain with eight regions still on alert
Attribution Science Linking Warming to Disasters Is Rapidly Advancing
Carbon Brief: How attribution can fill the evidence ‘gap’ in climate litigation