The Warming Arctic
... and why the Arctic Matters
The interaction between the Arctic and the Earth System
The Arctic region is a linchpin in the global climate system, exerting a profound influence on weather patterns, sea levels, and biodiversity across the planet.
According to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the Arctic ice is shrinking by almost 13% a decade, a trend that indicates ice-free summers by 2050. (Kim, Min, Gillet, & et al, 2023). Sea ice loss has far-reaching effects around the world.
The Arctic’s role in reflecting heat back into space is critical. The Arctic acts as a mirror for the Earth, bouncing heat back into space with its white ice. But this mirror is cracking, as the Arctic is heating up faster than anywhere else on the planet. As the ice melts, more dark ocean is exposed, which absorbs more heat and accelerates the warming. This reduces the Arctic’s ability to reflect heat and keep the Earth cool.
The chilly Arctic is in contrast with the warmer southern areas, creating a powerful wind called the jet stream, which steers the weather patterns across the northern half of the globe. But as the Arctic heats up faster than the rest of the world, this contrast weakens, and the jet stream becomes weaker and possibly faster. This can make the weather more extreme and unpredictable, as hot air from the tropics can invade the north causing heatwaves and droughts, while cold air from the poles could flow south bringing cold snaps and snowstorms. (E360, 2023), (Lerner, 2023)
Since 1880, global sea levels have risen by 8–9 inches (21–24 centimetres), with a significant acceleration in the past 25 years. (Lindsey, 2022), (NASA) The melting of Arctic ice caps and glaciers contributes to rising sea levels, posing a direct threat to local communities, marine ecosystems, and the biodiversity that depends on them.
Most of the rise in sea level has been caused by thermal expansion of seawater, which is expected to continue in the future, depending on the level of greenhouse gas emissions and the response of the ocean to warming. Rising sea levels have particularly dire implications for densely populated low-lying areas, including many island nations in the Pacific Ocean. Over a billion people, most in Asia, live in flat coastal areas, and within this century, some of these areas could be inundated by rising seas.
The Arctic is home to many animals that depend on the sea ice for their survival, such as polar bears, seals, walruses, arctic foxes, and many other species. But the shrinking and thinning of the sea ice, due to climate change, is forcing these animals to look for other places to live. Some of them end up wandering into human settlements, where they face new dangers and challenges and quite often lead to clashes between wildlife and humans in the Arctic.
Arctic warming also disrupts oceanic circulation patterns. Research suggests that Arctic sea ice loss can drive the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC), a vital circulatory system of ocean currents, on a tipping course and even collapse due to freshwater input from melting ice and increased precipitation. (van Western, 2024). A weakening AMOC could have profound effects on global climate, leading to an escalation in extreme weather phenomena, changes in ocean ecosystems and agricultural productivity, threatening food security.
As the Arctic ice melts, some areas that were previously inaccessible or frozen for most of the year become more navigable for ships. This opens up new possibilities for trade and transportation between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans, as well as for resource exploration and extraction in the Arctic region. However, these new shipping routes also pose risks to the Arctic environment. The Arctic is a fragile and unique ecosystem, and increased shipping activity could have negative effects on the environment and the indigenous communities, such as pollution, oil spills, invasive species and habitat loss. (LePan, 2020)
Additionally, the thawing of permafrost—ground that is permanently frozen— releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas, exacerbating global warming. An international study published in the journal Annual Review of Environment and Resources in 2022, estimated that under a low warming scenario — one that could be achieved if the global community limited warming to 2 C—permafrost would release 55 billion tonnes of carbon by the end of the century in the form of carbon dioxide and methane. (Brown, 2022)
The impacts of a warming Arctic in the U.K.
Climate change has recently emerged as a hot topic in our conversations with colleagues and friends. As the influence of a warming Arctic on weather patterns and sea levels becomes more profound, its impacts will touch everyone, regardless of where they live.
Take, for instance, London, my current home base. The effects of a warming Arctic in the United Kingdom will be vast and varied.
A warmer Arctic can lead to a more meandering jet stream, resulting in more extreme and prolonged weather events in the UK, such as heatwaves, cold spells, and storms.
Altered atmospheric circulation patterns may lead to changes in precipitation in the UK, with potential increases in the frequency and intensity of rainfall events, leading to a higher risk of flooding.
The melting of Arctic ice contributes to global sea level rise, posing a threat to coastal communities in the UK through increased erosion, flooding, and the submergence of low-lying areas.
A warming Arctic will lead to changing sea temperatures which can result in shifts in the availability of certain fish within UK waters, affecting the economy and food security.
Increased frequency of heatwaves due to global warming can have significant health impacts, including increased mortality and morbidity rates, particularly among vulnerable populations.
The retreat of Arctic ice is opening new shipping lanes, cutting travel time between Europe and Asia. This could mean faster deliveries and less fuel burnt, but also poses environmental and sovereignty concerns.
Melting ice opens up new areas for oil and gas exploration, potentially affecting global energy markets and the UK's energy supply and prices. However, this also raises environmental and ethical concerns. If the global energy system is to reach net zero by 2050, we need to stop all new oil and gas expansion anywhere in the world, particularly in vulnerable areas
The warming Arctic is a global crisis that highlights the interconnectivity of Earth's climate systems and the far-reaching consequences of global change. Its impacts will affect us all. Addressing these impacts requires comprehensive mitigation and adaptation strategies at both national and international levels. Most importantly, it's a wake-up call for all of us to recognize that the Arctic's warming is not just about saving a remote region but about preserving a stable climate and vital ecosystems for the well-being of current and future generations.
Bibliography
Brown, M. (2022, October 22). Thawing ‘country of permafrost’ likely to emit as much greenhouse gas as a large industrial nation. Retrieved from University of Alberta: https://www.ualberta.ca/folio/2022/10/thawing-country-of-permafrost-likely-to-emit-as-much-greenhouse-gas-as-a-large-industrial-nation.html
E360. (2023, July 19). A Stagnant Jet Stream Is Fueling Intense Heat Worldwide. Could Climate Change Be to Blame? Retrieved from 360: https://e360.yale.edu/digest/jet-stream-climate-change-heat-wave
Harvey, F. (2022, September 15). Pakistan floods ‘made up to 50% worse by global heating’. The Guardian. doi:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/15/pakistan-floods-made-up-to-50-worse-by-global-heating
Kim, Y. M., Min, S. K., Gillet, N. P., & et al. (2023). Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario . Nature Communications, 14(3139). doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38511-8
LePan, N. (2020, February 13). The final frontier: how Arctic ice melting is opening up trade opportunities. Retrieved from World Economic Forum : https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/ice-melting-arctic-transport-route-industry/
Lerner, L. (2023, December 6). UChicago, NCAR research suggests world will see ‘record-breaking’ winds. U Chicago News, pp. https://news.uchicago.edu/story/jet-stream-will-get-faster-climate-change-continues-study-finds.
Lindsey, R. (2022, April 19). NOAA. Retrieved from Climate Change: Global Sea Level: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
Milman, O. (2021, July 22). ‘Nowhere is safe’: heat shatters vision of Pacific north-west as climate refuge. The Guardian. doi:https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/21/pacific-northwest-heatwave-dome-climate-change
NASA, C. (n.d.). See Levels. Retrieved from https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
van Western, e. a. (2024, February 9). Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. Sciences Advances, 10(6). doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
WWF. (n.d.). Six Ways Loss of Arctic Ice Impacts everyone. Retrieved from https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/six-ways-loss-of-arctic-ice-impacts-everyone