Why Canada’s Upcoming Election Could Reshape the North American Order
Diary: 16 April, 2025
Less than two weeks before Canada’s federal election, and the political landscape has taken a dramatic turn. The Liberals are now leading by 8 points.
If you haven’t been paying attention to Canada’s election, now’s a good time to start.
How We Got Here
The U.S. government has placed heavy tariffs on Canadian products, including a 25% tax on cars. It has also made provocative comments about absorbing Canada as the 51st state. This caused a surge in nationalistic sentiments within Canada, influencing public opinion and party platforms.
Following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amid declining public support and internal party challenges, Mark Carney, a former central banker, assumed leadership of the Liberal Party in March 2025, and he immediately called for a snap election.
At first, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, held a significant lead in the polls. However, the Liberals have regained momentum, with recent polls indicating a surge in support, partly due to public's reaction to U.S. policies and Mark Carney’s resolute stance against growing threats from the southern neighbour.
Carney hasn’t minced words about Donald Trump. He refused to engage in any discussions with him and challenged Trump’s economic nationalism and denial of climate change. His message is twofold: defend Canada’s sovereignty abroad and transform its economy at home.
Carney has acknowledged the significant role of Canada's oil industry in national emissions, advocating for cleaner practices within the sector. As the UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, he emphasised the importance of aligning financial systems with climate goals. He supports the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, by promoting investments in renewable energy sources, viewing it as both an environmental necessity and a significant economic opportunity. In his book Value(s), Carney claims investors are already in the process of divesting from environmentally destructive companies and redirecting towards green capitalism He writes: “[A] new, sustainable financial system is being built. It is funding the initiatives and innovations of the private sector.” He advocates for incorporating values such as solidarity, fairness, and responsibility into financial decision-making, particularly concerning climate change.
The results of this election won’t just shape Canada’s sovereignty, and political direction—they could also have a real impact around the world. This vote matters more than you might think.