Headlines from a Warming World no 5
September 2023: the world's warmest September on record; European Summer 2023 surface air temperatures; The global costs of extreme weather; Extreme drought across Brazil’s Amazon; Outreach activities
As we discussed last week, September 2023 was the most anomalously warm month of any year in the ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) dataset, which dates back to 1940. According to Copernicus Climate Change Service, the average surface air temperature for that month was 16.38°C, which is 0.93°C above the 1991–2020 average for September.
Further analysis from Berkley Earth also shows that globally, September 2023 was the warmest September since measured instrumental records began in 1850, breaking the record previously set in September 2020.
The Berkeley Earth graph below shows that the global mean temperature in September 2023 was 1.82 ± 0.09 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average, setting a new record for the highest temperature excess of any month.
This is the 14th time in the Berkeley Earth analysis that any single month has reached at least 1.5 °C over the preindustrial benchmark.
Here is some additional information I gathered from various sources.
The previous record for warmest September was broken by 0.5 °C a staggeringly large margin.
Both land and ocean also set new records for the warmest September.
The extra warmth added since August occurred primarily in polar regions, especially Antarctica.
Antarctic sea ice set a new record for lowest seasonal maximum extent.
77 countries, mostly in Europe & the tropics set new monthly average records for September.
Record warmth in 2023 is primarily a combined effect of global warming and a strengthening El Niño, but natural variability and other factors have also contributed.
El Niño continues to strengthen and is expected to continue into next year.
2023 is now virtually certain to become a new record warm year (>99% chance).
2023 is very likely (90% chance) to average more than 1.5 °C above our 1850-1900 baseline.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Since that objective is set in terms of the average climate over a long period of time, a single month or year above 1.5 °C does not necessarily indicate that the target has been exceeded.
However, isolated anomalies above 1.5 °C are a sign that the Earth is getting close to that point. The target of 1.5 °C is crucial because it would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human societies.
If temperatures are to be kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, deep and rapid greenhouse gas emissions reductions will be needed in all sectors this decade. Urgent action is needed to transition to a low-carbon economy and implement sustainable practices across various sectors such as energy, transportation, and agriculture.
Remember, every action counts, and everyone has a role to play in combating climate change.
Sources:
September 2023 Temperature Update - Berkeley Earth
Copernicus: September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies; 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record
Gobsmackingly bananas’: scientists stunned by planet’s record September heat
Global Temperature Report: September 2023
The European-average surface air temperature for the summer months (June to August) from 1979 to 2023
June 2023 was the warmest June globally, at just over 0.5°C above the 1991–2020 average, exceeding June 2019—the previous record.
The global mean surface air temperature of 16.82°C for August 2023 was 0.71°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average for August and 0.31°C warmer than the previous warmest August in 2016.
The European average temperature for summer was 19.63°C, which, at 0.83°C above average, was the fifth warmest for the summer season. However, the June-July-August (JJA) season for 2023 was the warmest on record globally by a large margin, with an average temperature of 16.77°C, 0.66°C above average.
These figures indicate a trend of increasing temperatures, which is consistent with global warming trends.
The global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change.
A paper was published in Nature Communications on September 23, 2023, titled “The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change”. It discusses the societal costs of extreme weather events and how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have affected their occurrence.
The authors, Rebecca Newman and Ilan Noy collected data from all available Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) studies, combined these with data on the socio-economic costs of these events, and extrapolated for missing data to arrive at an estimate of the global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change in the last twenty years.
They found that $143 billion per year of the costs of extreme events are attributable to climatic change. The majority (63%) of this is due to human loss of life. Their results suggest that the frequently cited estimates of the economic costs of climate change derived from Integrated Assessment Models may be substantially underestimated.
The paper also notes that there has been a sevenfold increase in the reported disaster losses from extreme weather since the 1970s. While a part of this increase is due to increased reporting of disaster damage and increased exposure brought about by population growth and internal migrations to more exposed urban and coastal areas, a part of it is attributable to climate change.
Extreme drought across Brazil’s Amazon
The Amazonas state in Brazil is indeed experiencing one of its worst droughts in recent history. This drought has led to historically low water levels, affecting hundreds of thousands of people and wildlife across Brazil’s Amazon. It’s estimated that by the end of 2023, around 500,000 people could be affected.
An extreme heatwave is currently engulfing South America's northern regions, including Brazil, with record-breaking temperatures. Locals and scientists are concerned about a scorching summer, wildfires, and the future impacts on the region’s ecosystem and livelihoods.
Plastic Pollution
Microplastics have been found everywhere, in every nook and cranny of the planet, including oceans, rivers, and even the air we breathe. They have been detected in multiple organs, such as the lung, heart, blood, placenta, and faeces. They measure less than 5mm in size and are the result of the breakdown of larger plastic items like bottles and bags.
Now, Japanese scientists have found microplastics in the clouds.
“Ten million tons of these plastic bits end up in the ocean, released with the ocean spray, and find their way into the atmosphere. This implies that microplastics may have become an essential component of clouds, contaminating nearly everything we eat and drink via ‘plastic rainfall.’”
And something personal
Last Sunday, October 10, I talked to children and their parents about environmental conservation and climate change and the habits we can adopt to protect the environment in our daily lives.
The event "Go Green and Hug a Tree” was organised by the Greek Library of London at Holland Park in London, and it was part of Green Libraries Week 2023.
