Headlines from a Warming World no 7
Hurricane Otis Intensification; Amundsen Sea Warming Three Times Faster Than in 20th Century; September Arctic Sea Ice Extent; Resurfacing of Ancient Rock Carvings in Brazil; and Eco-anxiety.
Hurricane Otis’ Explosive Intensification: A Lesson in the Dangers of Warm Ocean Temperatures
Just imagine starting your day expecting strong breezes and some rain, and overnight you get catastrophic 165 mph winds and wind gusts as high as 205 mph.
That is exactly what happened to the people of Acapulco, Mexico, on October 25, 2023, just after midnight local time, when hurricane Otis made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane. That's bad enough, but just 12 hours prior, it was a tropical storm forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm. Not even a hurricane warning a day in advance.
The scale of the destruction is incredible. It will take a while to understand all the circumstances that allowed Otis to rapidly intensify from a tropical storm to a dangerous Category 5 hurricane in just a few hours. But persistent very warm water in the region (29–31 °C) almost certainly played a role. Over the past 50 years, 90% of warming around the globe has taken place in the oceans. This is a direct result of human-caused climate change. As the oceans continue to warm, we are faced with an intensified risk of tropical storm damage.
Otis could become the first Eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded to make landfall as a Category 5 in Mexico.
Amundsen Sea Warming Three Times Faster Than in 20th Century: What It Means for Climate Change
According to recent research published in Nature Climate Change, the rate at which the warming Southern Ocean melts the West Antarctic ice sheet will speed up rapidly over the course of this century, regardless of how much emissions fall in the coming decades. The research used computer simulations to determine the future ocean-driven melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and even under the most “unrealistically ambitious” climate scenarios, the outlook for the Amundsen Sea is sobering.
Even if the world meets the most ambitious Paris Agreement target of keeping global heating below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the Amundsen Sea warms three times faster than in the twentieth century.
The Amundsen Sea is a region of the Southern Ocean that surrounds some of Antarctica's largest glaciers, which are buttressed by the thinning and retreating ice shelves. The rate at which the Amundsen Sea warms is important because it is the main process controlling Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise.
The West Antarctic ice sheet is Antarctica's largest contributor to sea-level rise, and the ice loss is driven by interactions with the Southern Ocean, particularly in the Amundsen Sea. The research underscores what dozens of studies have suggested for three decades: the West Antarctic ice sheet appears to be headed for an eventual "collapse".
In summary, the analysis shows that the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is inevitable, and it will lead to a rise in sea levels, which will have catastrophic consequences for coastal communities around the world.
Sources:
Naughten, K.A., Holland, P.R. & De Rydt, J. Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x
West Antarctic ice sheet faces ‘unavoidable’ melting, a warning for sea level rise. By Scott Dance and Chris Mooney
Increased West Antarctic ice sheet melting 'unavoidable,' say scientists. by British Antarctic Survey
September Arctic sea ice extent
Due to its effects on global commerce lanes and climate change, the open sea passage of the Arctic Ocean has garnered attention. The average extent of Arctic Sea ice in September of this year was 4.37 million sq km, which ranks joint-fourth lowest in the satellite record (since 1979). This extent was less than it was in the previous two years.
The Arctic Dipole weather pattern that was experienced in July is one potential reason for the more extreme sea ice melt that was observed this year. The Arctic Dipole was first observed in the early 2000s and is thought to be linked to recent climate change. This weather pattern, which is often associated with severe ice melt because it tends to blow warm air from mid-latitudes over the Arctic and move sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean into warmer waters, has significant implications for the Arctic region, including increased ice melt and changes in climate patterns across the globe.
It’s worth noting that up until around 2005, summer open-water passages through the Arctic Ocean were unusual but have since become a yearly occurrence.
There is ongoing research suggesting that these northern waters could be open for months at a time, as early as 2030. This is a significant development and underscores the urgency of addressing climate change.be open for months at a time, as early as 2030. This is a significant development and underscores the urgency of addressing climate change.
If you see me, weep.
The Brazilian region is currently experiencing a severe drought, which is attributed to the El Niño weather pattern and warming in the North Atlantic linked to climate change. As a result, water levels in the port of Manaus, where the Rio Negro and the Amazon River meet, have dropped to 13.59 metres, the lowest level since records began 121 years ago in 1902. This has led to the resurfacing of ancient rock carvings, which had been mostly submerged since they were carved more than a thousand years ago. The petroglyphs, including human faces and other figures, have been revealed at an archaeological site known as the Ponto das Lajes, or Place of Slabs, and archaeologists believe that they were made by people who lived in the area in pre-Columbian times.
The emergence of the petroglyphs in Brazil reminded me of the Hunger Stones, a type of hydrological landmark found in Central Europe. They are rocks that are only visible when water levels are extremely low and have been inscribed with dates or sayings marking the event, such as "Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine" ("If you see me, weep"). Most of them are found on the Elbe, which flows from the north of what is now the Czech Republic through former Bohemia and then Germany and are dated from the 15th to the 19th century. The stones were embedded into a river during droughts to mark the water level as a warning to future generations that they will have to endure famine-related hardships if the water sinks to this level again.
Young people at ‘existential risk’ from climate crisis
A few weeks ago, I wrote about a conversation I had with a psychotherapist who brought to light the increased cases of climate change anxiety, also known as eco-anxiety, among both adolescents and adults.
Now, in a major intervention, the UK's top paediatrician, Dr. Camilla Kingdon, confirms the above assessment by stating that every adolescent is at grave risk from the physical and mental effects of the climate crisis.
Air pollution, extreme weather events, and rising energy costs due to the climate crisis are having profound effects on children’s health and well-being. However, the mental health effects of climate change on children are also significant.
“Children exhibit high levels of concern over climate change, and the mental health consequences, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, phobias, sleep disorders, attachment disorders and substance abuse, can lead to problems with learning, behaviour, and academic performance.”
This is a new area, and even professionals feel unequipped to handle it. But we can't continue to bury our heads in the sand. It is important to remember that eco-anxiety is not a mental health problem that needs to be fixed or cured. Rather, it is a healthy response to the situation we are facing. Awareness is important. However, over the years, I've learned that taking action, even if it's a small one, is the best strategy to ease anxiety.
In any case, these issues highlight the urgent need for action on climate change to protect the most vulnerable among us- our children
Join the subscriber’s chat if you want to start or join a conversation. Threads are a quieter space where readers can have a real, in-depth talk with me and others about issues that matter. All welcome- except trolls.