Headlines from a Warming World, no.10
US & China Accelerate Climate Efforts; Climate and the German debt ceiling; The hottest 12-month span in recorded history; EU State of the Energy Union 2023
Joe Biden and Xi Jinping Take a Step Towards Accelerating Climate Efforts
US President Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the second time since assuming office yesterday. Already, before their meeting, the two presidents announced a new climate agreement.
Despite China's refusal to commit to phase out coal, both countries agreed to cut emissions in their power sectors by ramping up renewables, with a commitment to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. According to a Carbon Brief analysis, emissions in China are expected to fall as early as next year, much sooner than expected, thanks to massive investments in the energy transition. The most striking growth has been in solar power.
Although there are no specifics, both countries have agreed to include methane in their respective 2035 emission-cutting plans, marking the first time China has made such a pledge. Methane is the second-most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, accounting for about 20% of global emissions. It's more than 25 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. The United States and China are the world's two biggest polluters of the environment, accounting for 38% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Both countries committed to work together to control non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, curb forest loss, and address plastic pollution.
The agreement comes ahead of the United Nations climate talks in Dubai, providing momentum for these negotiations. The plans of the 20 fossil fuel-producing nations to increase their production by 2030, which would exceed the carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, pose significant challenges for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), which will take place in a few days in Dubai
The potential impact of these plans on COP28 is substantial. The conference faces the challenge of addressing the unprecedented impacts of a warming planet, such as record-breaking wildfires, catastrophic floods, and unbearable heat waves. It remains to be seen whether the US-China agreement will bring the world closer to the goals of the Paris climate agreement.
We are sorry, children.
The German Federal Constitutional Court has ruled that the German government's decision to allocate €60 billion in unused COVID-19 pandemic debt to a climate fund is unconstitutional. This decision has implications for the government's budget negotiations and its ability to finance the country's green transition.
Key points from the ruling and its implications include:
The reallocation of €60 billion to a climate fund violated the constitutional debt ceiling, which limits government borrowing except during emergencies and recessions.
The court's decision reduces the volume of the Climate and Transformation Fund by €60 billion, leaving the government with a significant budgetary gap.
The ruling does not limit the amount the government can spend on tackling climate change, but rather the budgetary methods it can use.
The decision is likely to impact how governments plan their budgets in the future, and it leaves the German government with a substantial hole in its budget.
We are very sorry, children. Despite our best efforts, we were unable to prevent the climate catastrophe. We had no choice but to stick to the debt ceiling. We hope you understand.
The hottest 12-month span in recorded history
The past 12 months (November 2022 to October 2023) were the hottest ever recorded, with a global mean temperature of 1.32 degrees C above preindustrial levels. This July was also the hottest month ever, while September 2023 was the most anomalously warm month of any year in the ERA5 dataset (back to 1940). 1
1 in 4 people (1.9 billion) experienced a five-day heat wave (at minimum) that was strongly influenced by carbon pollution. __Climate Central
An analysis by Climate Central shows that billions of people experienced extreme heat that was made more likely by climate change. Heat waves in the U.S., Europe, and South America were virtually impossible without global warming. As you probably know, extreme heat poses a serious threat to human health and well-being.
A small boost from El Niño, a natural climate cycle, contributed to the exceptional global heat. However, most of the effect will be felt next year.
The findings of the analysis “confirm that climate burdens are both inequitable and emerging everywhere around the world. Least developed countries and small island nations had higher exposure to climate-driven heat, but climate change touched every country, and intense heat waves occurred in the U.S., Europe, India, and China.”
Chances are high that 2023 and 2024 will be the first individual years to cross the 1.5°C threshold, the fundamental goal of the Paris climate accord. The goal is still physically achievable but requires urgent action to phase out fossil fuels. However, this is unlikely to happen as the world’s fossil fuel producers are planning to increase their production by 2030, which would exceed the carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
EU State of the Energy Union 2023
The State of the Energy Union Report 2023 which describes the EU’s climate and energy policy, was published on October 24, 2023, by the European Commission. The report provides a comprehensive overview of the European Union’s energy policy and analyses the state of play in the implementation of the Energy Union in all its five dimensions, which are: (1) security, solidarity, and trust; (2) a fully integrated internal energy market; (3) energy efficiency; (4) climate action and decarbonizing the economy; and (5) research, innovation, and competitiveness.
The key features of the report include:
The EU is well prepared to ensure its energy security ahead of winter 2023-2024, thanks to gas storage facilities, diversified energy import routes and infrastructure, investments in renewable energy, and collective efforts to reduce energy demand.
The EU's net greenhouse gas emissions decreased by around 3% in 2022, reaching a reduction of 32.5% compared to 1990 levels.
The EU reduced its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by phasing out coal imports and reducing oil imports by 90%.
The EU reduced gas demand by more than 18% compared with the previous five years.
2022 was a record year for new solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity (+41 GW), which is 60% more than in 2021 (+26 GW). New onshore and offshore wind capacity was 45% higher than in 2021.
In 2022, 39% of electricity was generated by renewables, and in May, wind and solar surpassed fossil fuels for the first time in EU electricity generation.
According to the report, the EU is on track to meet its 2030 climate and energy targets, which is a plan implemented by the European Commission in response to the global energy market disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The targets include a 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels, at least a 27% share of renewable energy consumption, and at least 27% energy savings compared with the business-as-usual scenario.
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The ERA5 dataset is produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). It provides hourly estimates of a large number of atmospheric, land, and oceanic climate variables, including air temperature, pressure, wind, rainfall, soil moisture content, and sea-surface temperature, among others