Headlines from a Warming World no.11
Countdown to COP28; EU Strikes Deal to Curb Methane Emissions; Global warming in the pipeline; Ocean Acidification in the Mediterranean; Sweden to Host First National Citizen Assembly on Climate
Countdown to COP28
In the coming weeks, we will hear a lot about the 28th annual UN Conference of the Parties (COP28) on climate change, where world leaders and representatives meet to establish a global response to the climate emergency and review their progress on the Paris Agreement.
The main issues at COP28 include the adequacy of the national emissions pledges, the provision of climate finance, the implementation of the loss and damage fund agreed upon last year in Egypt (COP27), and the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition.
Cop28 is hosted by the United Arab Emirates in Dubai, and the president-designate of the conference is Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive of ADNOC, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) state oil and gas company. The appointment of a fossil fuel executive as the president of COP28 has sparked criticism and calls for Al Jaber to step down from his role at ADNOC if he wishes to lead a successful summit. The controversy stems from the perceived conflict between Al Jaber's leadership position in climate talks and his role in the fossil fuel industry, which could compromise his ability to impartially lead climate talks as the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are seen as conflicting with the interests of the fossil fuel industry.
Al Jaber himself has stated that without the inclusion of fossil fuel leaders in the climate conversation, there can be no orderly transition to a low-carbon economy. However, the role of the COP President is expected to be neutral and impartial, and the President should not participate in the meeting as a representative of his or her particular government.
My position on the issue is clear. The continued subsidies to oil and gas and the fact that the sitting CEO of an oil company is the president of COP28 are evidence that fossil fuel money continues to exert heavy influence at the highest levels of climate policy. Furthermore, the world’s fossil fuel producers are planning expansions that would blow the planet’s carbon budget twice over. This poses a significant threat to humanity's future, as it would lock in greenhouse gas emissions and exacerbate the climate crisis.
The oil industry has been found to lobby extensively against climate change measures, using significant financial resources and sophisticated techniques to influence public opinion and government policies.
For these reasons, these companies should be excluded from COP28 and all future climate discussions.
You can read a brief history of COPs here
EU Strikes Deal to Curb Methane Emissions in Energy Sector
The European Union (EU) has agreed on a law to curb methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry, marking the first legislation of its kind. It requires coal, oil, and gas companies to report their methane emissions and take steps to avoid them, finding and fixing leaks and limiting wasteful practices such as venting and flaring gas by 2027.
The law also tackles imported fuels, which could raise the bar for fossil fuel companies around the world. This is likely to impact major gas suppliers, including the U.S., Algeria, and Russia. Importers will face financial penalties if they buy from foreign suppliers that don't comply with the limit, effectively imposing a fee on non-compliant fuels.
The EU is on track towards its goal of ending Europe's reliance on Russian fossil fuels within this decade. The EU expected imports of Russian gas to drop to 40–45 billion cubic metres this year, compared with 155 bcm in 2021. To replace Russian gas, EU countries have increased imports from other suppliers and, at the same time, reduced gas use.
Methane is the second-most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, accounting for about 20% of global emissions. It's more than 25 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Therefore, this law is a significant step forward in the fight against climate change, setting a precedent for other countries and regions to follow.
Global warming in the pipeline
A new study led by James Hansen, a scientist who warned about climate change in the 1980s and has made significant contributions to the field of climatology, argues that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has underestimated climate sensitivity and the threat of large sea level rise and ocean circulation shutdown.
Climate sensitivity is a measure of how sensitive our climate is to increases in carbon dioxide (CO2). The higher the climate sensitivity, the more the Earth’s temperature will increase in response to a given increase in CO2 concentration. The authors estimate that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), in other words, how much Earth’s surface will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, to be 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2.
The study argues that the Earth’s climate is more sensitive to human-caused changes than previously realized, meaning that a “dangerous” burst of heating will be unleashed due to the continued burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. It predicts that the world will reach 1.5°C of warming by the 2020s and 2°C by 2050, faster than expected.
The study also claims that a reduction in pollution from shipping, which has cut the amount of airborne sulphur particles that reflect incoming sunlight, is causing an escalation in global heating. A Carbon Brief analysis shows that the likely side-effect of the 2020 regulations to cut air pollution from shipping is to increase global temperatures by around 0.05°C by 2050. This is equivalent to approximately two additional years of emissions.
The scientists state that we are “in the early phase of a climate emergency.” But the present huge planetary energy imbalance (warming) risks a world “less tolerable to humanity, with greater climate extremes.”
A climate characterized by delayed response and amplifying feedbacks (for example, as ice melts in the Arctic, it exposes darker ocean water, which absorbs more sunlight and heat, causing more ice to melt) is especially dangerous because the public and policymakers are unlikely to make fundamental changes in world energy systems until they see visible evidence of the threat. Thus, it is important for scientists to communicate the urgency of the situation and the need for immediate action to the public.
Source: Oxford Open Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2023, kgad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad00
Impact of Ocean Acidification on Calcification in the Mediterranean
When CO2 is released into the atmosphere, a significant portion of it is absorbed by the ocean. This absorption triggers a series of chemical reactions in the seawater, leading to an increase in the concentration of hydrogen ions, which in turn lowers the pH of the water, making it more acidic. This process is known as ocean acidification.
The burning of fossil fuels has been a major contributor to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, leading the oceans to absorb more CO2, and resulting in a rapid increase in ocean acidification, occurring faster now than in the last 20 million years.
A study assessed the impact of these changes on foraminifera, a group of calcifying planktonic organisms, in the Mediterranean Sea. As marine calcifiers, foraminifera use calcium carbonate to build their shells. When they die, these shells, rich in calcite, sink to the ocean floor, effectively sequestering carbon in the deep sea. This process moves alkalinity, which helps neutralize acidity, to the seafloor, contributing to the regulation of the ocean's carbon cycle.
Foraminifera are abundant and sensitive to environmental conditions, and changes in their populations can indicate changes in their habitats. the researchers found an accelerated decrease in shell weight during the 20th century due to ocean acidification. This indicates a basin-wide change in marine calcite production under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Continued ocean acidification could have adverse effects on marine ecosystem services, including climate regulation, the ocean's ecosystem functioning, and food security. Once again, let me state the obvious: mitigation of climate change by reducing carbon dioxide emissions is crucial to reducing the risk of climate change.
Sweden to Host First National Citizen Assembly on Climate Policies
Can a citizen assembly come up with ideas on how we could live up to the Paris Agreement?
Sweden thinks we can and introduces a project that will organize Sweden’s first national citizen assembly on climate in March 2024, where 50 randomly selected participants will discuss and suggest climate policies for Sweden.
The citizen assembly is part of the Fairtrans research programme, which aims to promote transformations to a fair and fossil-free future through cooperation between research and civil society.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that democracy must evolve its work in order to deal with society's fast and complicated changes, such as climate change, and that the public has a lot of insights and knowledge to contribute to climate issues.
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